Summary:
Electricity distribution grids have been identified as a potential bottleneck for the rapid rollout of distributed generation. This paper assesses the impact of relaxing the hosting capacity (HC) calculation criteria on the expected profits of generation capacity portfolios. Additionally, the potential of combining HC relaxation with hybridising renewable generation technologies is quantified. The methodology accounts for uncertainty surrounding HC, renewable resource availability, and market prices. The investor risk is represented via Conditional Value-at-Risk. The case study points out that the relaxation of HC calculation criteria unlocks the electricity grid's capacity to absorb more energy and incentivises the increase of installed generation capacity for maximising investor profits. Moving from a contingency-restricted static HC to a dynamic HC definition leads to an additional energy injection of 65%, increasing average investor profits by 64%. Combining the HC relaxation with hybridisation increases the optimal portfolio capacity by 127% and average investor profits by 75%. Sensitivity analyses are performed to assess the robustness of the results. The results highlight the potential of unlocking electricity distribution grid capacity by relaxing HC calculation criteria while guaranteeing profitability for investors.
Spanish layman's summary:
El estudio cuantifica los beneficios de hibridar generación renovable y relajar los criterios de cálculo de la capacidad de acceso sobre los ingresos de un generador, considerando aversión al riesgo. El caso de estudio analizado muestra un incremento de ingresos de hasta el 75% y de hasta un 172% de energía inyectada.
English layman's summary:
This work quantifies the benefits of renewable generation hybridisation and the relaxation of hosting capacity calculation criteria on the profits of risk-aware investors. A case study finds an increase of investor profits by up to 75% and up to 172% more energy injection.
Keywords: Distribution grids; Distributed generation; Hosting capacity; Flexible connections; Conditional Value-at-Risk
Registration date: 10/02/2025
IIT-25-030WP
